How to play the uncertainty in India

August 21, 2013 - 11:58 am

The market in India has dropped 10% in the past few weeks from 20,300 to ~18,250 due to concerns from a weakening Indian Rupee, domestic inflation and impact from the US ending QE.  Many of the leading companies in India are now trading at a discount and are oversold.  One company that we like in particular is ICICI Bank (NYSE Ticker: IBN).  ICICI Bank is a leading bank in India, and it has benefitted greatly from the surging middle class across the country.  There has been massive adoption of banking products over the past 5-10 years in India, which wasn't pervasive previously.  Credit cards, auto loans, life insurance, wealth management for high net-worh investors, and even investing products for non-Indian residents (NRI) are popular services in a Country where interest rates have hovered around 10% since the late 1990's.  

The Indian Rupee is at an all time low against the US Dollar, and India has reduced it's GDP growth forecast several times in past year.  ICICI Bank is a well-respected company, and has dropped from $48 to under $27 in the past 3 months.  While volatility will be high, we like the prospect of owning this stock for the long-term.  However, there is considerable risk in the continued devaluation of the currency and lower interest rates in India which could hurt bank stocks further.  

Instead of buying the stock, we are selling the Sept $24 Puts which pay $0.61 cents.  With the stock trading at $26.65, this is a decent premium for expiration just one month out.  Obviously that premium is being paid to take a risk, but there is a 78% chance that this option will close out of the money, and we'll get to pocket the premium.  However, if the stock drops below $23.39, we could be forced to buy the stock at $24, which is a good buy in the Emerging Markets segment of the portfolio.  We're ok with either scenario, however our preference would be to pocket the premium while the Indian market continues to find its footing, and to perhaps enter a position later in the year at a price in the lower $20's.  

For now we will get paid $61/contract that we sell on the Sept $24 Put.

Keep in mind this trade is being put on to potentially buy this stock at a better price, we're ok with being forced to buy the stock from the short puts.

 

Update 9/20/13:  These puts expired at $0 for a 100% gain.