How to play Tesla for a profit right now

July 26, 2013 - 12:26 pm

Tesla could be the new Apple, it has earned a following amongst car fans, equity analysts, day traders and long-term investors.  The outlook on the company looks extremely bright and the leadership team seems to have the company on the right trajectory for growth and profitability.  However, in the short term there are some challenges that are worth noting.  The company isn't profitable and has made big promises to owners such as guaranteeing the resale value in 3 years, and replacing batteries for $10,000.  The stock trades at a very lofty multiple to sales, and the larger volume lower priced cars are still a few years away from being sold.  

While I am a huge fan of the company and the movement they have started in the electric vehicle category, we can't say whether the stock will trade higher or lower than it's current value of $129 in the next few months, with a high degree of certainty.  With the stock trading at $129, it could continue going up to $140-150 if buying from it's inclusion in the market indexes continues.  If earnings disappoint when TSLA reports on August 7, 2013, you could easily see a drop of more than $10.  While we tend to lean towards the bullish side on this stock, we aren't comfortable going long the stock just yet.  

To profit from TSLA with a high degree of probability, we are selling the December 2013 $60 strike Puts for $1.12 today.  This will net us $112 per contract, and we will have to buy TSLA if the stock drops below $58.88 by December 20, 2013.  

Based on TSLA's implied volatility (IV), there is a 85% probability that it will close above $62.20 around the beginning of December.  We like these odds for a safer way to profit on TSLA versus buying or shorting the stock.