High probability option trade on WDAY

Workday (WDAY) will report earnings later today, and the company has been in a solid uptrend from it's November low of $129, and currently trades at $183/share.  We expect the company to put up strong revenue growth, but likely at a decelerating pace consdidering the trend over the pat four years. 

We'd like to buy shares on a pullback if the stock drops around $160, so we are selling the March 2023 $160 Puts today for $1.65, and this is a low risk trade as we expect these Puts to expire worthless. Should the stock drop below $158.35, we'd be happy to purchase shares at that effective price.

Between today and expiration in 18 days, there's a 88% probability that the share price for WDAY will trade higher than $160.