One certainty in this market that you can trade

October 22, 2013 - 9:57 am

The current market conditions are becoming more risky and overvalued as each day closes up on the S&P.  Who knows if  AAPL will stay above $500, or if NFLX will gain another $30 from here, or if the S&P can continue to rally above 1750 where it trades right now?  We're at a point in the market where chasing some of the larger cap stocks seems like a fool's errand.  There are contrarian indicators flashing warning signs (volume, margin %), and even though earnings have been positive for Q3 we haven't seen a proportionate "pop" in the market.  This leads us to believe that the market is setup for a correction coming soon.  We don't know if it will be a 4-5% correction, or a 8-10%+ correction, but the market will not go straight up from here.  Look at the S&P chart, and 1750 should provide a little resistance on the upside.

Considering that we don't know timing and direction in the very near term -- we do know that the VIX is trading at very low levels and that it doesn't stay low for too long.  See the chart below.

$VIX has bounced off of the ~$12 area roughly 12 times in the past year, and we're currently at $13.49.  Volatility will increase as markets become uncertain, or if there is any selloff at all.  We like the upside call on the $VIX, and we are buying the December $15 strike Calls on $VIX at $1.65.  Don't back the truck up on this trade yet because if the market continues to move higher $VIX will drop, and we can buy more at a further month into the future to give us additional time on the trade.  

This trade makes all the sense in the world right now given the current conditions, rather than picking direction on individual companies.