Risk leads Safety by a wide margin

Risk leads Safety by a wide margin

February 14, 2023 - 5:36 pm

If you look at year to date performance of various sectors and subsectors for 2023 through the first roughly 45 days of the year, there's a stark contrast in leaders vs. laggards.  The list of leading sectors reads like a buffet or risk-on, post-Covid reopening, yolo names including: auto dealers, social media, home builders, real estate credit, casinos & gaming, airlines, restaurants, private equity, theaters and internet companies. 

BEST SECTORS YTD
Auto Dealers 35.6%
Social Media 35.5%
3D Print 32.4%
Home Builders 24.7%
Real Estate - Operations 23.4%
RE - Credit 22.6%
Media Content 22.3%
Semiconductor 21.5%
Casinos & Gaming 21.4%
Travel 20.8%
MEDIA 20.6%
Discretionary - Leisure 18.9%
Semi - Fab 18.8%
Airlines 18.8%
Restaurants 18.7%
Internet Companies 18.2%
Private Equity 17.6%
Theaters 17.4%
Steel 17.4%
Media Dist 17.4%

 

This list couldn't be more different from the worst performers year to date which are all steady, safe, defensive sectors such as commodities, bonds, staples, food, tobacco, waste, oil and energy, telecom and utilities. Investors are flocking to high-risk, and high beta securities as the threat of any economic slowdown or recession seems to be a distant possibility that couldn't really happen. 

 

WORST SECTORS YTD
Beverages (0.7%)
Utilities (0.7%)
COMMODITIES 0.7%
Railroads 1.1%
BONDS 2.1%
Beer & Liquor 2.3%
Cons Staples 2.5%
CONSUMER STAPLES & FOOD 2.5%
Mining 2.6%
Food Manufacturer 3.2%
Tobacco - Pot 3.6%
Toys & Games 4.0%
ENERGY 4.2%
Waste 4.5%
Oil & Energy 4.8%
Telecom - Intl 5.7%
COUNTRY ETFs 5.8%
Biotech 6.4%
Business - Consulting 6.7%
Medical Devices 6.8%
TELECOM 6.8%

 

It's times like this when investor sentiment is running high, and greed seems rampant that a safer allocation really makes sense.  In the coming days and weeks we are highly likely to reposition our portfolios and positions reflecting the same strategy.

 

Here's a good read from JP Morgan's perspective on markets.